2012 Pheasant Forecast

2012 Pheasant Forecast by Larry Brown                                       
                              

For the 2012 season, pheasant hunters should expect one of those good news/bad news years. First, the good: The winter across most of our prime pheasant range was mild, a very positive change after a succession of harsh winters. And the spring and early summer nesting season was generally warm and dry. Result: Pheasant numbers increased almost everywhere over last year. But to put that into some perspective, last season was below average in many of the top pheasant states, and significantly below long-term averages in some.

The bad news is habitat loss, which explains why—even with increased bird numbers this year—some states are down in comparison to long-term averages. And it does not bode well for the longer term future of pheasant hunting. Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres are declining everywhere. And that critical habitat loss will impact both nesting success and winter survival.

For this season, a severe drought across the Midwest has resulted in CRP acres from Kansas up to central South Dakota being opened for emergency haying and grazing. If you’re hunting on private land, you should contact landowners in advance to see how that will impact cover conditions where you’re planning to hunt.

SOUTH DAKOTA remains in a class all by itself when it comes to pheasant harvest. The state’s 2011 harvest of 1.55 million birds, although a significant decline from the 1.83 million taken in 2010, is over twice as high as any other state. This year, hunters should see some improvement over last season. The summer brood survey showed an increase of 18 percent in the number of pheasants observed per mile. Greatest increases over last year were in the eastern part of the state: Aberdeen, Huron, Mitchell, Sioux Falls, Brookings, and Watertown areas. However, overall numbers remain highest farther west: Chamberlain, Pierre, Winner, and Mobridge areas. In the latter three areas, bird numbers are at or slightly above the 10-year average, while numbers elsewhere in the state remain below the long-term average. About 20 percent of South Dakota’s 1.1 million CRP acres are scheduled to expire this fall. If most of those acres are planted in row crops—and grain prices are currently at or near historic highs—continued prospects for 1.5-2 million bird harvests in South Dakota will be less likely.

NORTH DAKOTA claimed number two status last season, with a harvest estimated at 683,000 birds. That represented a healthy increase of about 130,000 over 2010. Part of that is due to an unusually mild winter, which allowed hunting to continue right up to the end of the season. That same mild winter, coupled with good nesting habitat and weather, put North Dakota on track for a season very similar to last year. In particular, virtually all of the state south of I-94 should offer good hunting for pheasants this season. Long term, North Dakota faces the same habitat issues as its neighbor to the south—but without the emergency haying and grazing situation for this season. CRP losses to this point have resulted in the state’s Private Lands Open To Sportsmen (PLOTS) acres decreasing from over a million to about 800,000. Hunters heading to western North Dakota, especially from Dickinson on west, need to make sure they can find lodging. The oil boom in that region means a lot of motels are full to capacity, year round.

NEBRASKA’s harvest of 218,000 birds last year was down slightly from the 2010 total (252,000). This year, rural mail carrier counts show numbers that are either comparable to last year, or up somewhat. Best areas should be the southwest and the Panhandle, although parts of those areas may have been impacted somewhat by the heat and drought. In the eastern part of the state, habitat loss—both temporary, in the form of emergency haying and grazing, and longer term as CRP acres expire and leave the program—will impact bird numbers and hunter success.

The 2011 pheasant harvest in KANSAS, at 475,000 birds, was about half the total for the previous year. The main culprit is the drought. The western part of the state was under drought conditions last year, but this year it’s the entire state. The result will be a much higher loss of CRP habitat—at least temporarily, due to the drought emergency—in comparison to last year. The best areas for hunters should be the northwest and north central. However, the outlook is that hunting will be tougher this year than last, with a further decline to perhaps a 300,000 bird harvest.

MINNESOTA’s harvest dropped from 360,000 in 2010 to 204,000 last year. Much of that was weather-related. However, the state is now faced with the potential yearly loss of 200,000 CRP acres. On the positive side, last winter was much milder, and spring nesting conditions were also good. This year’s roadside survey was not yet complete as this forecast was being prepared, but reports indicated good reproduction and increased bird numbers likely for this season.

The situation in IOWA mirrors that in Minnesota. Not very many years ago, Iowa pheasant hunters would have been shocked by a harvest as low as 238,000 birds, which was the total in 2010. But the downhill slide continued, with hunters last year bagging only 109,000 birds. Weather—in the case of Iowa, five straight winters with above-average snowfall, followed by springs that were colder and wetter than average—is the major culprit. However, as bird numbers have declined, so has hunter participation. In 2011, only 46,000 hunters pursued pheasants in Iowa. That number was over 140,000 as recently as 2003. This year, Iowa finally caught a weather break, and the prediction is for a 40 percent increase in bird numbers statewide. Hunting will still be very spotty compared to the million-bird years of the past, but areas that held birds last year should be even better this year. However, drought conditions will result in some temporary losses of CRP habitat.

Pheasant hunters in MONTANA experienced a better than expected season last year, following a harsh winter. And this year, following a much milder winter and decent spring, overall bird numbers should be up with most of the state showing some improvement. Best areas will be: Region 4 (central and north-central), where hunting should be about average in the south but above in the north; the eastern part of Region 6 (northeast Montana), which will be above average; and Region 7 (southeast), which will be about average in the north, but continue above average in the south. Hunters focusing on the eastern part of Region 6 need to be aware of the impact of the oil boom, which will mean a shortage of lodging.